Abstract: Based on the data of the Yangtze River economic belt from 2006 to 2012, the paper empirically studies the decoupling relationship between industrial development and energy consumption by Tapio decoupling model, and predicts the 2020 energy consumption under different scenarios. The results show that it is weak decoupling relationship between industrial development and energy consumption of the Yangtze River belt, the decoupling relationship of three industries are weak decoupling for most of the years, the first industry and the third industry is the expansion coupling in individual year, 9 provinces are almost weak decoupling, Jiangxi and Sichuan is the expansion coupling in individual year; the Yangtze River economic belt can reduce energy consumption and promote industrial development in the meantime, to reach strong decoupling and achieve the successful transformation and upgrading of the Yangtze River economic belt in energy-saving scenarios and strengthening energy-saving scenarios. Finally, the output effect is also a main factor for increasing the energy consumption. The structure effect has little effect on energy consumption. It has promoted energy consumption increasing in the baseline scenario and the energy-saving scenario, and reduced the energy consumption in strengthening energy-saving scenarios, while energy intensity effect is also the key factor to reduce energy consumption.
Key Words: the Yangtze River economic belt; industrial development; energy consumption
The Chinese version appeared in Ecological Economy, 2017(02).